Five

January 14, 2024Posted by NawFuL

 
Week 18 results

Sean

Wins By

16

159-113
8-8
175-97
13-3
163-109
11-5
Saturday, January 6, 2023
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore Baltimore  Pittsburgh  Pittsburgh  
Houston @ Indianapolis Indianapolis   Houston  Indianapolis
Sunday, January 7, 2023
 Cleveland @ Cincinnati Cincinnati  Cincinnati   Cincinnati  
 Minnesota @ Detroit  Minnesota Detroit Detroit
 Jacksonville @ Tennessee Jacksonville  Jacksonville   Jacksonville
 N.Y. Jets @ New England New England   N.Y. Jets  New England
Atlanta @ New Orleans  New Orleans   New Orleans New Orleans  
 Tampa Bay @ Carolina Tampa Bay   Tampa Bay Tampa Bay  
Chicago @ Green Bay  Green Bay  Green Bay Green Bay  
Denver @ Las Vegas  Las Vegas  Las Vegas   Las Vegas  
 Philadelphia @ N.Y. Giants Philadelphia   Philadelphia Philadelphia  
 Seattle @ Arizona  Seattle Seattle  Seattle 
Kansas City @ L.A. Chargers   L.A. Chargers   Kansas City  Kansas City
 L.A. Rams @ San Francisco L.A. Rams  San Francisco   San Francisco
 Dallas @ Washington Dallas  Dallas  Dallas
Buffalo @ Miami   Miami Buffalo   Buffalo 
© 2023 Gehlke Bros. Football

The Junior Bro carved his name in the GBF history books one more time on Sunday, accomplishing a feat heretofore unachieved in our annual picks competition — winning the Surfy Trophy for a record fifth consecutive year. In the end, it was not so much that he conquered another 18-week season, but that he did so in dominating fashion, notching his largest margin of victory since we began keeping records and the single largest rout since 2016. 

As difficult as it might seem, Glenn trailed by a measly 5 games barely a month ago, so Sean’s 2023 GBF Championship is as much a story of his consistent performance contrasted with an epic meltdown by the Senior Bro. It’s what happens when you go 4-of-19 in splits down the home stretch, including a 1-for-7 showing in Week 18. You might have thought it to be the result of a bunch of WAG picks by a desperate Bro who had nothing left to lose, but Glenn will assure you that all of his predictions were quite carefully considered and serious. 

Seriously bad, as things turned out. 

In a week in which all of the games are matchups of division rivals, some whose playoff fates have already been settled while others are in a desperate fight to sneak into the postseason, it is extremely difficult to predict outcomes. But Sean managed it quite well, going 13-3 for his best weekly record of the season, putting a flourish on his history-making title. His highlights: 

* Pittsburg defeated Baltimore, 17-10, to secure the final AFC playoff spot. 

* Houston won at Indianapolis, 23-19, earning the Texans a division title and eliminating the Colts. 

* Detroit showed no signs of slouching into the postseason with a 30-20 victory over Minnesota. 

* Tennessee eliminated defending AFC South champ Jacksonville, 28-20. 

* The Jets knocked off New England, 17-3, possibly closing out the storied career of Patriots coach Bill Belichick. 

* And in a fitting end to the week, it was Buffalo’s 21-14 win over Miami in the Sunday night finale that gave the Bills the second seed in the playoffs along with their fourth-straight AFC title… and delivered one last gut punch when the Senior Bro was already bleeding out on the mat. 

If there was a silver lining for Glenn, it was correctly calling the Rams’ 21-20 win over the 49ers — ironically the second time in three weeks he won a split with the Niners while losing six other games in the same weekend. 

Sean celebrated his championship with a 13-3 win in the final week, adding two games to his final margin over his nephew Ben in the overall standings. Ben took second place with an 11-5 record, while Glenn sagged to a third-place finish with a mediocre 8-8 mark that left him 16 games behind Sean and had him hauling the paper grocery sacks out of storage for the long offseason. For the week, our mutual correct predictions were for Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Las Vegas, Seattle, and Dallas. No one called Tennessee, or the N.Y. Giants. 

Congratulations to Sean on his remarkable win, and now it’s time for the year-end recap… 

* * * * * 

A NEW DYNASTY IS BORN

 For the 20th time in 32 seasons that the Surfy Trophy has been part of the Gehlke Bros. Football tradition, Sean hoists the golden statuette again. Not just once, twice or three times, but for a record fifth straight title — something we thought might never be achieved, proving yet again that all records were made to be broken.

 And sometimes when you’re on a hot streak, everything just goes your way. In sports and in life. The Junior Bro celebrates one of his biggest GBF titles in the same season he tied the knot at the altar and traveled the world to Fiji and New Zealand in the glow of marital bliss. Meanwhile, the opposite was the case for the Senior Bro, whose hopes of a successful season lasted just slightly longer than Aaron Rodgers on opening day, getting taken down on the fourth play from scrimmage.

CONSISTENCY COUNTS: It isn’t hard to see where Sean’s success during this win streak lies. He has consistently won nearly two of every three games, this season going 175-97 for a 64.3% accuracy rating. That was better than last season’s 171-98-2 (63.5%), or a pickup of 2.5 games.

Meanwhile, his competition slipped. Ben finished second in the overall standings with a 163-109 record (59.9%), a decline of 7.5 games from last year’s 169-100-2 (62.7%). Glenn thought that 2022 was a terrible year (it was), but 2023 actually wound up worse; the Senior Bro finished at 159-113 (58.5%) for a 5.5-game dip from last year’s 163-106-2 (60.5%). It should be noted that there were no tie games in 2023 — the first time that has happened since 2017.

DOIN’ THE SPLITS: Glenn and Sean split 52 of the 272 games played, or 19.1%. That closely compares with last season’s 54 splits, although it is worth noting that 17 of this year’s tally came in the final three weeks of the season. Sean won 34 while Glenn took 18. There was at least one split in every week except Week 12. Ten weeks featured an even number of splits, including the first six in a row — another unusual occurrence. There were eight weeks with an odd number of splits. Weeks 16 and 18 tied for the most splits, with seven — a figure that matched last year’s greatest single week.

WIN, LOSE OR TIE: Sean’s 2023 season played out in nearly identical fashion to how it unfolded in 2022. He won or tied the first five weeks, amassing a 6-game advantage before Glenn had his first winning week — a deficit from which he never recovered. Going head-to-head, the Junior Bro won nine weeks outright and tied in five others, leaving Glenn just four weeks in which he gained any ground at all. Overall, Sean finished with the best weekly record six times and tied six times. Ben won three and tied in five for second place. Glenn came in third, winning two and tying in five.

Sean saved his best week for last, going 13-3 in Week 18 to put an exclamation point on his championship with the best single weekly record of all Bros. His worst was a 4-9 mark in Week 7, which also earned notoriety as the worst weekly record of anyone this season. Glenn’s best was 12-4 in Week 17 (one of his two winning weeks), which came on the heels of his worst mark in Week 16, when he went 5-11. Ben also saw a best mark of 12-4 in Week 8, while his worst was a 6-9 in Week 14 — one of two weeks in which all the Bros notched identical records.

NAWFUL AFTER DARK: We saw 11 splits in what were officially designated as “night games” (excluding the front half of double bills on Monday or Saturday). This was one of the few areas where Glenn excelled, winning six of those contests, including all three Monday night splits. That is an interesting stat, considering that Monday was one of our worst days of the week; Glenn compiled a 6-10 mark in 16 games, and Sean went 3-13, including losses in the final eight Monday night games played! His last win on that night was Oct. 30, when we all picked Detroit over the Raiders. He made up for that with his Sunday night performances, going 14-4 while winning two of the four splits we generated. Sean also won both of the Saturday night splits, while we each split a game on Thursday night.

WHO DO YA LOVE (OR HATE)?: We all know Sean loves the 49ers, yet despite going 12-5 with them this year, they were far from his best team. That title would go to Indianapolis. We split 8(!) games with the Colts, with Sean capturing seven of those decisions for a 13-4 record. His second best team was Las Vegas, accounting for a 14-3 record and a sweep of all five split games involving the team. Green Bay (6-11) and Atlanta (7-10) were Sean’s two worst teams, although not from a split standpoint.

Glenn’s most successful team was Cincinnati (11-6, 3-of-3 splits won), and his second best was Carolina (16-1, 2-of-2 splits). Glenn called every Panthers game correctly with the exception of a Week 15 win over Atlanta. No other teams were particularly friendly to the Senior Bro, but the AFC West was especially challenging, collectively accounting for a 37-31 record and 15 splits — 13 of them losses!

ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS: No one expected Sean’s quest for a fifth straight Surfy Trophy to be easy, but few probably foresaw the blowout that ensued in 2023 as the Junior Bro, without missing a beat, picked up from where he left off at the end of 2022. Whether propelled by skill, luck, or destiny, Sean took advantage of even-split weeks in the first five weeks and a mediocre start by his brother to quickly grow a 6-game lead, sweeping Weeks 1 and 5 and going 3-1 in Week 3.  

Those three weeks were separated by 2-2 draws in Weeks 2 and 4, when Glenn might have kept things close if not for bad luck. In Week 2, the Broncos had dominated the Commanders for most of the game until a critical turnover led to a Washington comeback win when Denver missed a game-typing 2-point conversion. Glenn then had to bite his nails before salvaging the split on Monday night when Pittsburgh beat Cleveland. In Week 4, Glenn couldn’t take advantage of a Thursday night win by the Lions over the Packers, despite also winning one of the Sunday early games with Buffalo over Miami. That was because he got blown out with Baltimore’s win over Cleveland and his Colts couldn’t overcome a slow start at home to the Rams; Indy went on a 23-0 run to send the game into overtime, but they lost when the Rams scored a touchdown on first possession.

Week 3 was the week of the Miami Massacre, where the Broncos got pounded 70-20. Although we didn’t split that game, it was also the week of the Senior Bro Swoon, which saw Glenn drop three of four splits, including the Sunday nighter. Desperation and self-doubt were already taking hold by the end of Week 5, after Sean’s two-game sweep put him a commanding 6 games up and left Glenn wondering if and when he might finally have a winning week. A telling stat: Since 1998, no Bro leading by at least three games after Week 5 had ever lost a GBF Championship. If history wasn’t going to repeat in 2023, Glenn would have to get off the goose egg soon.

All streaks eventually end, and Glenn finally got the monkey off his back in Week 6, taking three of four games behind Dallas’ thrilling 20-17 Monday night win at the Chargers. In was only a good week instead of a needed great one, however, because in keeping with the theme of the season, the Patriots had lost to the Raiders, 21-17, the previous day, which required Dallas to win for Glenn to gain any ground at all. Glenn clawed back another game in a forgettable bye-shortened Week 7 that saw both Bros finish sub-.500; Glenn won the lone split with Baltimore over Detroit in what marked the first week all year that we had an odd number of splits.

Glenn’s back-to-back weekly wins left him 3 games behind with the middle of the season approaching. As it turned out, that would be the only winning streak he would see, and following a flat Week 8 in which the Bros split a win each, the 3-game deficit would be the last high-water mark for the Senior Bro.

If there had been cracks forming in the moat of the Junior Bro’s lead, he quickly managed to plug the leak, achieving a tie in Week 8 and then picking up a game in both Weeks 9 and 10. In an oh-so-close season for the Senior Bro, he lost yet another pivotal split in Week 9 when Dallas penalized itself out of a win at Philadelphia, which gave Sean the week and helped preserve what at that point was a 4-game cushion. In fact, much of the season see-sawed between Sean leading by 4 or 5 games.

Week 11 saw the Bros attend the 49ers home game against the Buccaneers — and Glenn won the week for only the third time all season when the Broncos defeated the Vikings on Sunday night. The following week, Thanksgiving, saw the only week of the season in which there were no splits, unless you count the breaking of bread around the dinner table. Sean picked up another game in Week 13, then celebrated his wedding the following week by jetting off for Fiji and taking a 5-game lead into the final four weeks of the season, and that was where things really heated up.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing you’ve always done and expecting a different outcome. The definition of desperation is when you try to change the outcome when the odds dictate a strong possibility of failure. And that is what happened to the Senior Bro down the stretch. Historically at his best in December, Glenn went 4 and 15 over the last four weeks, including a pair of 1-6 routs in Weeks 16 and 18. His only winning week in that stretch was a 12-4 record in Week 17, and Sean was stunned to return from his honeymoon to a lead that had more than doubled. He went on to win the Surfy Trophy by 16 games, consistently winning 10 or more games in all but one of the final seven weeks. Do that, and you’re almost guaranteed success.

In addition to winning the championship in the past five seasons, Sean now has won six of the past seven titles. And that is where we’ll leave it until GBF2024 in September. Hope to see you then as we write the next chapter.

Doing the victory skip

January 1, 2024Posted by NawFuL

 
Week 17 results

Sean

Leads By

11

151-105
12-4
162-94
11-5
152-104
11-5
Thursday, December 28, 2023
 N.Y. Jets @ Cleveland  Cleveland Cleveland  Cleveland 
Saturday, December 30, 2023
 Detroit @ Dallas Dallas  Dallas    Dallas
Sunday, December 31, 2023
Miami @ Baltimore Baltimore  Baltimore   Baltimore 
 New England @ Buffalo  Buffalo   Buffalo Buffalo 
 Atlanta @ Chicago Chicago  Chicago   Chicago 
 Tennessee @ Houston  Houston Houston  Houston 
 Las Vegas @ Indianapolis Las Vegas   Indianapolis Indianapolis 
Carolina @ Jacksonville   Jacksonville  Carolina Jacksonville 
 L.A. Rams @ N.Y. Giants L.A. Rams  L.A. Rams    L.A. Rams
 Arizona @ Philadelphia Philadelphia   Philadelphia  Philadelphia
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay   Tampa Bay   Tampa Bay Tampa Bay  
 San Francisco @ Washington San Francisco  San Francisco  San Francisco  
Pittsburgh @ Seattle   Seattle Seattle   Seattle
 L.A. Chargers @ Denver Denver   Denver L.A. Chargers 
 Cincinnati @ Kansas City Kansas City  Kansas City   Kansas City  
 Green Bay @ Minnesota Green Bay    Minnesota  Minnesota
© 2023 Gehlke Bros. Football

It’s something we haven’t said much this season: the Senior Bro won the week. If you’ve kept up with Gehlke Bros Football through the years (and who hasn’t?) then you might be aware that Glenn has a reputation for strong finishes in the month of December — sort of like the dark horse that emerges from the pack in the home stretch. Finishing strong and winning the race are separate and unequal outcomes, however, and the thing is you have to sort of be in contention for it to make a difference. Glenn is not in contention or anywhere close to it in 2023. 

But in a season of futility and failure, amid several years of futility and failure, you bask in the glow of victory wherever you can find some, and so for just the fourth time this season the Senior Bro got to do a little victory dance in Week 17… or perhaps it was more of a victory skip. Two out of three splits. Woo-hoo! 

Just how did that happen? You might well ask after the Raiders failed to win their road trip to Indianapolist, 23-20. Fortunately for Glenn, the Junior Bro’s pick of Carolina to upset Jacksonville was equally unsuccessful as the Jags shrugged off a sluggish start to record a 26-0 shutout and retain a slim hold on their division lead. And in the most unlikely of scenarios, it was the Sunday nighter that put Glenn over the top when Green Bay swamped Minnesota 33-10 in another game with playoff implications. But Glenn wasn’t glued to his TV to watch any of it, as he was off with the rest of the Gehlke clan celebrating New Year’s Eve in Hayward. 

As we close in on the end of another season and begin looking ahead to GBF 2024, Glenn might want to adopt a new strategy of not paying attention to the games, as he seems to do better when the TV is off: his 12-4 record for first place was among the better weeks he’s had this year. Sean and Ben tied for second at 11-5, both retaining their positions in the overall standings, and there is little suspense headed into the final week aside from whether Ben can hang onto that second seed over his dad, who picked up a game on him. We had lots of agreement with winning picks in Week 17, including Cleveland, Dallas, Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Houston, L.A. Rams, San Francisco and Kansas City. Only Arizona, New Orleans and Pittsburgh evaded the collective greatness of our prognosticating abilities.